21 October 2008

- Crazy Polls -

Crazy result in both Zogby (O 50, M 42) and GWU/Battleground (O 48, M 47) this morning. Fortunately, they are moving in opposite directions, which makes it relatively easy to discount both as outliers. Actually, the composite tracking has been fairly stable over the past 10 days, with Obama hovering about a point off his high and McCain slightly more than a point above his low.

I would say Obama has about a 6% lead, on the order of 52% O, 46% M, 2% other. If we correct for the Diebold Effect, the final poll results would look something like 50.5% O, 47.5 % M, 2% Other.