01 November 2008

- Obama in a Blowout -


55% Obama
42% McCain
3% Other

The undecideds will not break McCain's way; most of them will simply not vote. Indeed, the likely voter model will be found to have overestimated the likelihood that Republicans would vote.

The youth vote will be about what it was in 2004, but the high turn out among African Americans and general apathy among Republicans will make for the lopsided margin.

These are simply predictions, of course, but I remain convinced that McCain has a greater likelihood of underperforming his polling numbers than overperforming.